Two things happened in Canada this morning, hours apart.

Alberta submitted a proposal to the federal Major Projects Office for a one million barrel per day pipeline to the West Coast. The goal is getting Alberta oil to Asian markets and reducing dependence on the United States, which matters more than ever with CUSMA now stuck in annual review and the CAD sitting at 70 cents.

The same morning, Mark Carney stood in Vancouver next to BC Premier David Eby and confirmed the North Coast tanker ban stays in place.

Those two announcements do not fit together easily.

A northern route through Prince Rupert is roughly 36 hours faster to Asia than the southern route out of Vancouver. Upholding the tanker ban essentially blocks the most economically viable route before Alberta even confirmed which route it wants.

Now the federal government has until October 1 to decide whether to designate the pipeline a project of national interest. If approved, construction could start as early as September 2027.

But here’s thing.

No private company has committed to build or finance this pipeline. Not one. The five biggest oil sands companies that would be needed to fill it are hesitant to commit while they are still subject to the industrial carbon tax. This is a pipeline proposal without a pipeline builder.

The Indigenous communities on the northern route said no before the route was even announced. Marilyn Slett of the Heiltsuk Nation put it plainly: "The Great Bear Sea is no place for oil tankers." The broader First Nations alliance on BC's North Coast said the project will never happen.

Pierre Poilievre called the tanker ban ridiculous and said Ottawa needs to get out of the way. But it is worth noticing he is telling Ottawa to get out of the way of a project that does not have a private company behind it yet.

Eby, for his part, said BC will not go to court to fight a pipeline. The deal he signed ensures the northern ban stays and BC gets compensated if a pipeline proceeds anyway.

Carney flew to Calgary tonight to meet Danielle Smith. More details are expected.

Here is the honest picture. Canada needs to sell its oil to someone other than the United States. CUSMA is in annual review, the trade relationship is uncertain for a decade, and the economy needs new customers.

But there is a very wide gap between today's announcement and a shovel in the ground. No builder. No confirmed route. The fastest route just had its ban upheld. The communities on that route said never.

Watch what happens by October 1. That deadline will tell you whether this is a project or a press release.

That is the Canadian take.

Until next time,

Dean

P.S. Do you think this pipeline actually gets built, or is this announcement more about politics than energy? Hit reply and tell me.