By Dean Brown.

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Good morning,

British Columbia just changed governments.

The B.C. Conservatives are leading in 63 of 93 ridings, comfortably above the 47 seats needed for a majority.

The NDP is leading in 28.

The Greens are leading in two.

And judging by how my video on the result is performing, a lot of Canadians are paying attention.

But I’m less interested in spending today recapping election night.

The more useful question is:

WATCH MY BREAKDOWN OF THE B.C. ELECTION RESULT →

The Conservatives are sitting at roughly 48.05% of the preliminary popular vote, compared with about 37.4% for the NDP and 11% for the Greens.

These are still preliminary results, with final count beginning November 6.

Almost all ballot boxes have reported, but vote-by-mail, absentee and some other ballots are counted later.

What stands out is where the Conservatives won.

This was not just a rural breakthrough.

They pushed deeply into Metro Vancouver and the Lower Mainland, including winning or leading in several Burnaby ridings and across much of Surrey. See the riding-by-riding B.C. results an\d map

In Burnaby Centre, for example, the Conservative candidate was leading with about 47% of the vote, while Conservatives were also leading in Burnaby North. See the detailed Elections BC riding results

Surrey shifted even more dramatically, with Conservatives leading across most of the city’s ridings. See the Surrey results breakdown

That makes this more than David Eby simply losing a few swing ridings.

It is a meaningful political shift.

Lorne Doerkson campaigned on several clear differences from the NDP.

More support for resource development.

Support for the Pacific Link pipeline.

No tax increases.

More spending restraint.

Changes to housing and regulation.

A different approach to public safety.

Pacific Link may be one of the first places we see a real change.

Ottawa has already designated the pipeline nationally important.

Alberta supports it.

Now B.C. will have a government that is much more supportive of the project politically.

That does not mean the pipeline suddenly gets built.

It still faces:

Indigenous consultation

Federal conditions

Environmental approvals

Financing

Route disputes

Potential court challenges

But one major source of provincial political opposition has changed.

This is where campaigning turns into governing.

The Conservatives promised tighter spending and no tax increases.

But B.C. still has to pay for health care, schools, housing programs, infrastructure and public-sector wages.

So the question I’m watching is not:

It is:

That arithmetic is going to matter a lot more than the campaign slogans.

Alberta’s unofficial referendum count is now complete, although the results do not become official until October 29. See Elections Alberta’s unofficial results

Roughly three-quarters of voters chose to remain in Canada, while about one-quarter supported beginning the process toward a future binding separation referendum.

That is a clear rejection of the separation path.

But the rest of the ballot tells a more complicated story.

Albertans also backed the immigration-related questions while rejecting the broader constitutional-change proposals.

The referendum included five questions dealing with immigration, access to provincial programs and voting eligibility, followed by four proposed constitutional changes. Read all 10 referendum questions

So the broader message looks something like this:

That gives Danielle Smith political room to pursue some immigration changes.

It does not give her a blanket mandate for the rest of her constitutional agenda.

Toronto voters choose their mayor today.

Polls are open from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. See Toronto’s official election information

And the final polling does not point in one clear direction.

Mainstreet Research had Brad Bradford at 48.9% and Olivia Chow at 47.5% among decided voters. See the Mainstreet poll

A more recent Canada Pulse survey had Chow at 51% and Bradford at 46% among decided and leaning voters. See the Canada Pulse results

Other polling has also produced different margins.

So the responsible description is simple:

At this point, there is not much value in trying to turn another poll into a prediction.

We should have the actual answer tonight.

This is probably the biggest economic event of the week.

The overnight rate is currently 2.25%.

A Reuters survey found 19 of 34 economists expect a quarter-point increase, while 15 expect the Bank to hold.

The reason the decision is difficult is that Canada is getting two very different signals.

Canada’s annual inflation rate reached 3.1% in September.

Gasoline prices were 27.8% higher than a year earlier.

But inflation excluding gasoline was only 2.2%.

A lot of the renewed pressure is coming from energy rather than broad price increases across the economy.

Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September.

The unemployment rate rose to 6.5%.

So Wednesday’s real question is:

That is not an obvious call.

This one deserves more attention than it will probably get.

Food Banks Canada recorded:

in March alone.

That was 8.7% higher than last year and nearly 117% above 2019 levels.

Important distinction:

That does not mean 2.35 million unique Canadians used food banks.

The figure counts visits, so someone using a food bank more than once can appear more than once.

Still, the trend is striking.

Nearly 776,000 visits were by children.

And 17.9% of food-bank clients now report employment as their main source of income, compared with about 12% in 2019.

That last number is worth sitting with.

Having a job is increasingly not enough to keep every low-income household out of food insecurity.

Housing is a major part of the problem.

About 71.8% of food-bank clients live in market rental housing.

Food Banks Canada also says people with the lowest incomes are spending close to 60% of their disposable income on housing.

This is also why slower inflation does not automatically mean people feel better off.

Prices can stop rising as quickly and still remain dramatically higher than they were a few years ago.

Some federal websites temporarily went offline after the government became aware of two critical vulnerabilities affecting PHP, software widely used to run websites and online services.

Some services were deliberately taken offline while security updates were installed.

Treasury Board says there is currently no indication that Government of Canada systems or information were compromised.

So the accurate description is:

Not:

There is also an interesting AI angle here that is probably worth its own technology story another day.

B.C. voters changed governments.

Albertans overwhelmingly chose Canada while still asking for more control over immigration.

Toronto voters make their decision today.

And on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada has to decide whether inflation is dangerous enough to justify higher rates while the labour market is already weakening.

Those stories look unrelated.

But they are all versions of the same problem:

That is what I’ll be watching in B.C. now.

Campaign promises are over.

The budget comes next.

Until tomorrow,

Dean

P.S. If you haven’t seen my B.C. election video yet, I break down why this result is much bigger than simply David Eby losing government. WATCH MY B.C. ELECTION BREAKDOWN →