When I first saw Canada's jobs report this morning, I thought, "Finally, some good news."

Canada added just over 18,000 jobs in June.

That's better than economists expected.

The unemployment rate also dropped a little, from 6.6 percent to 6.5 percent, according to Statistics Canada.

After months of hearing about a slowing economy, that's definitely encouraging.

But before we get too excited, let's take a closer look.

Most of those new jobs weren't full time.

They were part time jobs.

A lot of them showed up in restaurants, hotels, retail stores, and wholesale businesses.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with those jobs. They're important, and they put money in people's pockets.

But they also happen to be the kinds of jobs that usually see a big boost every June.

Think about it.

School is out.

Students are looking for summer work.

Restaurants get busier.

Tourist season kicks off.

Retail stores hire extra staff.

That happens almost every year.

Now here's the part that caught my attention.

Manufacturing actually lost jobs.

On its own, that sounds worrying.

But I also think it's important to add some context.

I've seen this happen firsthand.

Every summer, many factories tell staffing agencies they won't need as many workers for a few weeks. Production slows down for maintenance, equipment upgrades, or model changeovers. Then, a few weeks later, those same staffing agencies start hiring again as production ramps back up.

That's why I'm careful not to overreact to one month's manufacturing numbers.

We'll have a much better idea by late August or September whether those jobs come back like they normally do.

There was another bright spot in the report.

Wages for permanent employees were up 3.7 percent compared with a year ago.

That's still growing faster than inflation, which means many workers are still seeing their paycheques stretch a little further than they were a year ago. You can read the full Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey if you'd like to see all the numbers.

So where does that leave us?

I'd call this cautiously good news.

It's certainly better than another weak jobs report.

But one month doesn't tell us that Canada's economy has turned the corner.

We've still had two straight quarters where the economy shrank. Business investment has now fallen for five straight quarters. Companies are still dealing with uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and the overall economy.

Those problems haven't disappeared overnight.

So here's what I'll be watching.

If manufacturing starts hiring again after the summer and we begin seeing more full time jobs across different industries, I'll feel a lot better about where things are heading.

If that doesn't happen, then June was probably just the normal summer hiring bump we see every year.

Either way, the next couple of jobs reports will tell us a lot more than this one did.

Until next time,

Dean

P.S. When you think about the economy, what tells you the most? Your grocery bill? Gas prices? Housing? Jobs? Hit reply and let me know. Your answers help shape future newsletters.

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