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The Canadian Take

Good day,

The next Canada U.S. tariff deadline is getting very close.

The encouraging part is that both countries now appear motivated to get something done before August 19.

The less encouraging part is that Canada still wants more tariff relief, Trump still has the final say, and several politically difficult issues remain unresolved.

We’re also looking at Ontario’s new rules for AI data centres, a possible breakthrough on Churchill Falls, a strange political surveillance story in Ontario and a looming transit dispute in B.C.

Canada U.S. Trade
Canada and the U.S. both want a deal

Canadian and American negotiators are still trying to reach an agreement before August 19, when new 50 per cent U.S. tariffs are scheduled to hit roughly US$20 billion in Canadian exports.

The difficult part is figuring out what Canada gives up.

Negotiators have reportedly discussed vehicle tariffs, dairy quota administration and bringing American alcohol back to provincial liquor stores.

Doug Ford now says Ontario would restore U.S. alcohol if Canada gets what he considers a fair deal.

Canada is also trying to protect the larger trading relationship because some of the new tariffs can hit products that would normally receive preferential treatment under CUSMA. Roughly US$20 billion in Canadian exports are exposed.

The bigger question is whether Trump accepts whatever negotiators produce.

Technology
Ontario tells AI companies pay thrown hydro bill

Ontario wants more AI data centres, but it does not want regular electricity customers paying for them.

The province’s new Data Centre Playbook says large projects should cover the full electricity and grid costs they create.

That matters because Ontario currently has roughly 7,000 megawatts of proposed data centre connections, compared with provincial peak demand of about 25,000 MW.

Large projects may also face higher electricity rates and could lose access to some industrial discounts.

Ontario also says it will not offer direct cash subsidies. Instead, projects will be judged partly on jobs, infrastructure, Canadian data hosting and local benefits.

Municipalities such as Oakville have already paused projects while studying noise, water and electricity demands, while Toronto has asked the province for clearer rules.

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Energy
A new Churchill falls deal may finally be close

Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec appear to be making progress toward replacing one of the most controversial energy agreements in Canadian history.

But nothing has been signed yet.

Premier Tony Wakeham says there has been “significant progress”, while talks with Quebec and Ottawa continue.

The original Churchill Falls agreement allowed Hydro Quebec to buy huge amounts of Labrador electricity at extremely low prices and resell some of it at much higher market rates.

A 2024 proposal would dramatically increase Newfoundland and Labrador’s revenue and add new projects such as Gull Island and expanded Churchill Falls generation.

That earlier framework was projected to generate more than $200 billion for Newfoundland and Labrador through 2075.

Ottawa may also help finance new projects through clean electricity tax incentives, while the broader plan could eventually move more Labrador power into Atlantic Canada.

Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro has said the earlier structure could also leave Hydro Quebec carrying much of the construction and cost overrun risk.

Canada - US Trade
Ontario PCs spent nearly $3,000 following Bonnie Crombie to Jamaica

The Ontario Progressive Conservative Party reportedly spent nearly $3,000 sending someone to Jamaica to observe Bonnie Crombie shortly after she became Ontario Liberal leader.

Crombie was there on a private vacation.

The Trillium reported that the operation was opposition research and connected the trip to party expense records.

Doug Ford says he did not know about the trip and would not have spent the money that way.

Political parties routinely research opponents through speeches, public records and events.

Sending someone internationally to watch a political opponent during a private vacation is much more aggressive.

There is currently no evidence the operation involved criminal conduct, and no reporting suggests it uncovered serious wrongdoing.

The party used party funds, which are supported by both private donations and Ontario’s political financing system.

A separate report based on the same expense records also documented spending at Jamaican resorts.

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Transit
B.C. transit workers issue strike notice, but buses are still running

Approximately 4,400 WestJet flight attendants could strike as early as Sunday, August 2.

The union and airline must provide 72 hours’ notice before a strike or lockout begins, and negotiations were still underway Wednesday.

WestJet is allowing passengers travelling from July 30 through August 4 to make a one-time change or cancellation without an added fee.

The main disagreement involves pay, including work performed before boarding, during delays and after passengers leave the aircraft.

Flight attendants argue they should be paid fairly for all required duties, not mainly for time connected to the flight itself.

For travellers: Make sure WestJet has your current contact information, check your flight directly through the airline and review any travel insurance or credit-card coverage.

Do not cancel on your own before checking the rules. Cancelling voluntarily could affect your refund or rebooking options.

Quick things happening across Canada

Quick things happening across Canada and beyond

  • Ontario cuts assistance for people without legal immigration status: Ontario changed Ontario Works and ODSP rules so people living in Canada without legal status are no longer eligible. The rule does not apply to every immigrant or refugee claimant.

  • TTC introduces automatic fare capping: Starting September 1, riders using the same payment method will stop paying after 47 TTC trips in a calendar month. Riders still need to tap after reaching the cap.

  • Quebec pension fund earns 5.1 per cent: La Caisse gained about $26 billion during the first half of 2026, but its 5.1 per cent return trailed its 7.5 per cent benchmark.

  • B.C.’s top Mountie removed from duty: RCMP commanding officer Dwayne McDonald has been relieved while allegations dating from 2016 to 2018 are investigated. Police have not disclosed the allegations, and no finding of wrongdoing has been made.

  • Western Nova Scotia gets $10 million for rural transit: Ottawa and Nova Scotia are funding buses, an electric bus, chargers and facility upgrades serving Kings, Annapolis and Digby counties.

  • Doug Ford still wants jets at Billy Bishop: Ottawa rejected the latest expansion proposal, but Ford says he believes the airport will eventually expand.

  • American booze could return: Ford says Ontario would be willing to put U.S. alcohol back on LCBO shelves if Canada gets a fair trade agreement. Whether Canadians start buying it again is another question.

  • Ontario Line costs remain under pressure: The project was initially presented at roughly $10.9 billion and is now estimated around $29 billion, with remaining contracts potentially pushing the total higher.

  • Wildfires are hurting tourism away from the flames: B.C. tourism businesses outside evacuation areas are reporting cancellations because travellers are assuming much larger parts of the province are unsafe.

  • Alberta’s separatism vote is coming: Alberta will hold a non binding referendum October 19 on whether the province should begin the process toward a future binding independence vote. The October result itself cannot make Alberta independent.

P.S. If Canada gets meaningful tariff relief, would you support putting American alcohol back on provincial shelves, or should the boycott continue regardless?

Hit reply and let me know.

If today’s issue helped, share it with another Canadian.

Until Tomorrow,
Dean.

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