In January, Canada made a deal with Beijing. The 100 percent tariff on Chinese-built EVs dropped to 6.1 percent, capped at 49,000 vehicles in the first year and rising to 70,000 by 2030. In exchange, China lifted its tariffs on Canadian canola, lobster, crab, and peas, reopening a market worth billions to Canadian farmers and fishers.

Six months later.

BYD, the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer, is building roughly 20 branded dealerships across Canada, starting in the Greater Toronto Area and expanding to Vancouver, Montreal, and Calgary. The company hired a Markham, Ontario consultancy to scout locations. This is not a toe in the water. BYD originally planned to enter Canada in 2024, shelved it when the 100 percent tariff landed, and moved within weeks of the January deal.

They are not alone. Chery is building its own Canadian dealer network. NIO and XPeng have signalled interest. The 49,000 unit quota is shared across all of them, which means the race is on for allocation.

BYD has explicitly ruled out the United States, citing triple digit tariffs and connected vehicle restrictions. Canada is now the only door into North America for the world's biggest EV maker. Its executive vice-president told Bloomberg the company is even evaluating Canada for a wholly owned factory.

Now the tension because there is one on each side of this.

For Canadian consumers, this is more choice and lower prices in an EV market where the average price has hovered near $70,000. Worth knowing: federal EV rebates will not apply to BYD vehicles, since the program is restricted to EVs built in Canada or free trade partner countries. BC and Quebec provincial rebates may still apply depending on the model.

For Canadian autoworkers in Windsor and Oshawa, it looks different. Ford, GM, and Stellantis said in a joint statement last month that the deal undermines Canadian autoworkers and creates cyber risks. And when Carney was caught on that hot mic at the G7 explaining the deal to Trump, his pitch was telling: "less than 3 percent of our market, 49,000 cars, I thought you'd actually like that."

Cheaper cars for consumers. Real pressure on domestic manufacturing jobs. A deeper trade lane with China opening exactly as the American one enters a decade of annual reviews. All of these are true at the same time.

The government said this deal was about giving Canadians more choice and lower prices. BYD setting up shop is exactly that playing out. Whether it is a win or a loss depends entirely on where you sit.

That is the Canadian take.

Until next time,

Dean

P.S. Would you buy a Chinese EV if it cost $20,000 less than the Canadian-built alternative? Hit reply and tell me honestly.