Canada's current submarine fleet consist of 4 Victoria-class boats built in the 1980s. Yes that is not a typo and only 1 of them are operational. Canada bought them used from Britain in the late 1990s for 1$ each. They have spent more time in dry dock than in the water.
That is the fleet defending the country with the world's longest coastline and three ocean borders.
Today in Halifax, that era officially got an end date. Canada selected Germany's TKMS to build 12 new conventionally powered submarines for the Royal Canadian Navy, one of the largest military procurement decisions in Canadian history. The acquisition cost is approximately $24 billion. With 30 years of maintenance and support, the total could reach $100 billion.
Carney made the announcement on his way to the NATO summit in Turkey: "Canada is back and we are here to stay as a serious defence partner."
Now the timing is deliberate but it’s smart. Canada shows up to NATO this week having hit the 2% defence spending target for the first time in decades, ordered 12 submarines, and announced a $40 billion pipeline. Whatever else you think of this government, that is a different posture than Canada has brought to an alliance summit in a generation.
The German choice itself makes sense on the merits. TKMS is the world's largest non-nuclear submarine manufacturer and supplies roughly 70 percent of NATO's fleet. Both final bids were deemed operationally suitable, so the decision came down to economics and alliance relationships. Germany promised $86 billion in economic benefits and 650,000 job years in Canada over the life of the deal, against South Korea's $70 billion and 25,000 jobs annually. Germany and Norway even offered to give up one boat each from their own orders to speed up Canadian delivery. First boat arrives 2036, full fleet by 2043.
Worth to note but those job creation and economic benefit numbers are promises made in competitive bids, not contractual guarantees. The winning bid always has spectacular numbers attached. Whether 650,000 job years actually materialize in Canadian shipyards and supply chains is something that gets proven over decades, not announced in Halifax.
The Type 212CD that Canada selected is a newer German-Norwegian joint design that is not yet fully operational in this variant. South Korea's KSS-III is an existing, proven, exported design. Canada chose the better economic package and the deeper alliance relationship over the more proven boat. That is a defensible call. It is also a bet.
And Canada's defence procurement track record is the reason to keep watching. The F-35 decision took 20 years. Trans Mountain went 700 percent over budget. The first of these submarines arrives in 2036, which is three federal elections away. A lot of promises will pass through a lot of governments before a single boat touches Canadian water.
Canada needed submarines and today it finally ordered them. The strategic logic is sound, the alliance signal is real, and replacing dollar boats that cannot leave the dock is not optional for a serious country. The deal deserves credit. The promises attached to it deserve a decade of scrutiny.
Both of those things start today.
That is the Canadian take.
Until next time,
Dean
P.S. First delivery is 2036, ten years and three elections from now. Do you trust Canada's procurement system to deliver these on time and on budget? Hit reply and tell me.