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By Dean Brown.
Good Sunday morning,
Hopefully you’re reading this somewhere between Thanksgiving plans, family, food and pretending you’re definitely not going back for another plate.
I want the Sunday Edition to be a little different from what I normally send you.
Less politics for the sake of politics.
More:
What is happening with the economy, your money and the decisions you may actually have to make?
And this week there is one number that stands out.
Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September.
That followed another 42,000 jobs lost in August. The unemployment rate moved up to 6.5%, while the share of Canadians with a job fell to 60.6%. Statistics Canada
So what does that actually mean for you?
Let’s get into it.
Finding a Job Is Getting Harder
The headline number is bad enough, but the more useful number might be Canada’s job-finding rate.
Statistics Canada says the share of unemployed Canadians finding work fell to 30.6%, down from 32.8% a year earlier and well below the 36.5% average seen between 2017 and 2019.
In plain English,
unemployed Canadians are having a harder time getting back into work than they did before the pandemic.
Young Canadians were hit particularly hard. Employment among people aged 15 to 24 fell by 48,000 in September. Women aged 25 to 54 also lost 28,000 jobs, while education, health care and manufacturing all posted declines. Statistics Canada
And this is not happening evenly across the country.
Quebec lost 49,000 jobs in September. B.C. lost 20,000. Ontario employment edged lower.
Alberta went the other direction, adding 23,000 jobs. Statistics Canada
That is an important reminder that Canada does not really have one job market right now.
Someone looking for work in Calgary may be dealing with a very different economy from someone trying to get hired in Montreal or Toronto.
What This Means for Workers
If you already have a stable job, none of this means you should suddenly panic.
But if you are job hunting, thinking about switching careers or depending on overtime and extra shifts, the environment is getting tougher.
Wage growth is slowing too. Average hourly wages were up 2.3% from a year earlier, reaching $37.64. That is still wage growth, but nowhere near the pace Canadians were seeing a few years ago. Statistics Canada
For the Bank of Canada, weaker employment gives it more reason to worry about economic weakness and less reason to worry about an overheated labour market.
The Bank’s policy rate is currently 2.25%, and its next rate decision comes October 28. Bank of Canada
So the jobs report matters even if you are not looking for a job.
A weaker labour market can eventually influence:
mortgage rates
borrowing costs
business hiring
wage negotiations
consumer spending
That is why I would keep watching this one.
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YOUR MONEY
Ottawa Will Pay Some Households Up to $10,000 for a Heat Pump
If your furnace is getting old, this is worth knowing.
Ottawa announced a new National Heat Pump Rebate as part of a $2 billion home-retrofit package.
Eligible households below the median-income threshold can receive up to $10,000 toward a heat pump.
Other eligible households can receive $2,000. Canada Prime Minister
The program is expected to support as many as 820,000 heat-pump installations, and Ottawa says the rebate can be stacked with existing provincial programs. Canada Prime Minister
It is also supposed to be much easier to use than some previous retrofit programs.
No pre-installation home energy audit.
No post-installation audit.
Ottawa says approvals should be available within 24 hours. Canada Prime Minister
That matters because heating systems have an unfortunate habit of breaking when you are not planning to replace them.
Will It Actually Save You Money?
This is where I would be careful with the headline.
Ottawa says households switching from oil, propane or electric-resistance heating could save more than $1,400 a year on average. Canada
That does not mean every Canadian will save $1,400.
Someone replacing oil heat in Atlantic Canada could have very different savings from someone replacing a relatively efficient natural-gas furnace in Alberta or Ontario.
your current heating system
electricity prices
natural-gas or oil prices
the size and insulation of your home
installation cost
whether you qualify for the $10,000 or $2,000 rebate
So my basic rule would be:
If you already need to replace oil, propane, electric baseboards or an old electric furnace, this program is worth checking.
If you have a relatively new and efficient gas furnace, I would not replace it just because Ottawa says heat pumps can save money.
WORTH KNOWING
Your EI Deduction Is Going Up Next Year
This is not a huge increase, but you will eventually see it on your paycheque.
The employee EI rate will rise from $1.63 to $1.64 for every $100 of insurable earnings in 2027.
The maximum income subject to EI also rises from $68,900 to $70,800. Canada
For someone earning enough to hit the annual maximum, the most they can pay rises from:
$1,123.07 this year
to
$1,161.12 next year.
That is $38.05 more for the year, or roughly $3.17 a month averaged across twelve months. Canada
The maximum weekly EI benefit also rises from $729 to $749. Canada
So this is not one I would get worked up about.
You pay slightly more.
The maximum benefit rises too.
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ONE NUMBER WORTH KNOWING
$736,300
That was Ontario’s benchmark home price in September.
It is down 3.9% from a year earlier.
Ontario recorded 13,340 home sales during the month, down 8.3% from last September and 21% below the 10-year average for the month. CREA Stats
This does not mean Ontario housing suddenly became affordable.
But it does mean buyers generally have more negotiating power than they did during the hottest years of the market.
Lower prices help.
The problem is that the monthly cost still depends on the mortgage rate, down payment, property taxes, insurance and condo fees.
So eventually I want to do a Sunday piece that answers a more useful question:
If house prices are falling, is it actually cheaper to buy?
Because that is not always the same thing.
DON’T MISS THIS
The latest Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit payment went out October 5.
The next Canada Child Benefit payment is October 20, followed by CPP and OAS payments later in the month. Canada
One thing worth reminding people about:
You generally do not apply separately for the Groceries and Essentials Benefit.
Eligibility is based on your tax return.
So someone with low income who thinks there is no reason to file because they owe no tax can still miss government benefits by not filing.
That is probably worth forwarding to someone who needs to hear it.
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THE WEEK AHEAD
Tuesday: International travel numbers
Statistics Canada will release September international-arrival estimates. It is not the biggest economic release of the week, but travel patterns can give us another look at consumer demand and cross-border activity. Statistics Canada
Wednesday: Building permits
We get August building-permit numbers. With housing supply still a major Canadian problem, I will be watching whether planned residential construction is actually increasing or losing momentum.
Thursday: Manufacturing and vehicle sales
Statistics Canada releases August manufacturing data and new motor-vehicle sales. Manufacturing is worth watching after the sector lost 13,000 jobs in September.
Next Monday: Inflation
This is the big one.
September CPI arrives October 19.
The Bank of Canada has already said it is watching inflation risks from energy prices and tariffs, while the newest jobs report points to a weaker labour market. The combination will help shape the conversation ahead of the October 28 rate decision. Statistics Canada
One thing before I go…
The part of the jobs report that I think deserves more attention is not necessarily unemployment hitting 6.5%.
It is how much harder it is becoming to actually find another job once you lose one.
That changes how comfortable people feel switching careers, negotiating wages, taking financial risks or leaving a job they do not like.
The unemployment rate tells us how many people are looking.
The job-finding rate tells us how hard it is to get back in.
That may be the more important number right now.
Until next time,
Dean
P.S. I’m curious what would be most useful for next Sunday: mortgages, grocery costs, phone plans or car insurance? Hit reply and pick one.