If it feels like the economy still hasn't turned a corner, the latest numbers won't make you feel any better.

Canada has now recorded the weakest first year under a new prime minister in at least 63 years.

That isn't a political slogan. It's what the latest economic data shows.

According to Statistics Canada, Canada's economy shrank slightly in the first three months of 2026 after also shrinking at the end of 2025. That means we've now had two straight quarters where the economy got smaller.

Many economists call that a technical recession.

But that doesn't automatically mean Canada is officially in a recession.

The C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council says it looks at more than just GDP. It also watches things like jobs, consumer spending, and industrial production before making that call. Right now, it says it's still too early.

So why is the economy struggling?

The federal government says a big part of the slowdown comes from U.S. tariffs, businesses delaying investments, and lower immigration. Prime Minister Mark Carney has also argued that some slower growth is expected while Canada tries to rely less on the United States and rebuild the economy in other areas.

Critics see it differently.

They argue Canadians have been hearing promises of an economic turnaround for years, but the numbers still aren't improving.

This stood out to me the most

Canadian businesses have now cut back on investing for five straight quarters.

And why is it a problem?

When businesses stop investing, they build fewer factories, buy less equipment, hire fewer workers, and slow down future growth. It's one of the clearest signs that companies aren't feeling confident about what's coming next.

You can read Reuters' full reporting here if you'd like to dig deeper into the data.

Whether you blame tariffs, government policy, or the global economy probably depends on your point of view.

But one thing isn't really up for debate.

Most Canadians don't judge the economy by GDP charts.

They judge it by whether groceries cost less, whether they can afford a home, and whether they feel like they're getting ahead.

Right now, a lot of people would probably say the answer is still no.

Until next time,

Dean

P.S. When you think about the economy, what's the first thing you notice in your own life? Is it groceries, housing, gas prices, your paycheque, or something else? Hit reply and let me know.