Hey,

Five companies control 75% of Canada's grocery market. That number was eight major grocers back in 1986. Forty years of consolidation and Canadians now have fewer real choices at the checkout counter than their parents did. Averi

The average Canadian family of four is on track to spend $17,571 on groceries in 2026, nearly $1,000 more than last year. So when Prime Minister Carney announced a $3.2 billion National Food Security Strategy on June 11th, Canadians were paying attention. IEMLabs

The plan includes a $1 billion investment to build food terminals and distribution hubs to help independent grocers buy food at more competitive prices. An independent grocer of 30 years asked the most honest question anyone has asked about this plan: who is going to pay for these distribution centres? The answer, when you read the fine print, is that the government is betting $3.2 billion over ten years that infrastructure alone will create enough competition to move prices. That is a long bet.

Here are the two fixes that would actually work. Neither one costs $3.2 billion.

The first is banning property controls. Loblaw and Sobeys are currently under Competition Bureau investigation for using real estate lease agreements to block competitors from opening nearby. You have likely seen this yourself without knowing it: an empty retail space sitting vacant for years in a plaza anchored by a major grocery chain. That is not a coincidence. One piece of legislation ends this practice nationally. Manitoba already did it provincially in June 2025. The federal government has not.

The second is worth examining even if it is genuinely disputed. The industrial carbon tax adds cumulative costs across food supply chains, particularly in trucking. The Canadian Climate Institute put the impact at roughly 0.1% of food prices, about a penny per two dozen eggs. The trucking industry says the real number is higher when you stack it across every leg of the supply chain. Both sides have data. A targeted exemption for food supply chains is a conversation worth having openly, not burying in footnotes.

The Competition Bureau launched a new food chain examination on June 16th with a report due in spring 2027. That is the third major study of grocery competition in recent years. The Bureau has been saying the same thing clearly for years: concentration and property controls are the problem. The government's response has been to fund warehouses and commission another report. Let's Data Science

The plan announced this month is not nothing. $12.9 million per year going to the Competition Bureau for enforcement is a real increase. Expanding the Ontario Food Terminal by end of year gives independent grocers a real alternative. These things matter at the margin. Wellput

But the two moves that would genuinely change the structure of the market, banning property controls nationally and examining supply chain costs honestly, require picking direct fights with Loblaw, Sobeys, and the big chains that have lobbied against both for years. The government knows what the problem is. It has known for a long time. The question Canadians should be asking is not whether the plan is good. It is whether it is enough.

Until next time,

Dean

P.S. When did you last switch grocery stores because of price? Or are you locked in to one chain out of habit or convenience? Hit reply. Genuinely curious how many people have actually changed their shopping behaviour.