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By Dean Brown.
Good morning,
Donald Trump made a claim about Canada over the weekend that has been spreading quickly.
He said the U.S. loses $90 billion “for the privilege of allowing Canada to have a healthcare system.”
That sounds like Americans are somehow paying for Canadian hospitals.
They aren’t.
My video breaking this down has taken off across all four of my platforms, so I want to slow the claim down because two completely different things are being mixed together.
No, America Is Not Paying for Our Healthcare
Trump really did make the claim.
But the first problem is the number.
The latest complete annual data show the U.S. goods trade deficit with Canada was about $46 billion U.S. in 2025, not $90 billion.
And even that $46 billion was not a payment from the U.S. government to Canada.
It was a trade balance. Pasted text
A trade deficit simply means Americans bought more goods from Canadians than Canadians bought from Americans.
If an American refinery buys $1 million worth of Canadian oil, money goes to Canada.
But the American company gets:
$1 million worth of oil.
That is a purchase.
It is not Washington handing Ottawa $1 million.
So Who Pays for Canadian Healthcare?
We do.
Canadian healthcare is funded mainly through provincial and territorial governments using Canadian tax revenue, along with federal transfers financed through federal revenues.
There is no mechanism where the U.S. trade deficit gets deposited into Canadian healthcare budgets.
Those are two separate systems. Pasted text
Trump has repeatedly described the U.S. trade deficit with Canada as money America is “losing.”
But that wording leaves out what Americans receive in return:
Canadian oil.
Natural gas.
Lumber.
Vehicles.
Metals.
Food.
And plenty of other products.
Where There Is a Real Debate
There is a legitimate argument underneath all of this.
The U.S. can decide it wants a smaller trade deficit.
It can try to manufacture more at home.
It can challenge Canadian trade barriers.
Canada can push back against American tariffs and argue that both countries benefit from an integrated economy.
Those are real debates.
But these two statements are not interchangeable:
The U.S. buys more goods from Canada than Canada buys from the U.S.
and
The U.S. pays for Canadian healthcare.
The first is about trade.
The second is not how Canadian healthcare is financed.
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Alberta Votes Today. Here’s What the Vote Actually Does
Albertans are voting today in a referendum that has generated plenty of headlines about separation.
But Alberta is not voting today to leave Canada.
Question 10 asks voters either to support Alberta remaining a province of Canada or to instruct the provincial government to begin the legal process toward a future binding referendum on separation.
Today’s vote itself is non-binding. Pasted text
So even if the separation-process option wins:
No new border appears.
No one loses Canadian citizenship.
Alberta does not become independent.
The province would begin a much longer legal and constitutional process.
Interest is already high.
Before election day began, 1,356,873 advance and special ballots had been cast.
That represents 43.1% of eligible electors. Pasted text
The other nine questions also matter.
They cover immigration, access to provincial services and proposed constitutional changes involving Ottawa and Alberta.
Several would still require federal involvement or constitutional changes.
Danielle Smith herself voted for Alberta to remain in Canada while supporting the other nine questions.
So the larger fight is not simply:
Canada or independence?
It is also about how much more authority Alberta wants from Ottawa.
Question 10 is being counted first. Unofficial results are expected within 48 hours of polls closing, with official results scheduled for October 29.
Canada Is Changing Who Gets an Advantage in Express Entry
Starting November 3, Canada is adding a new Labour Market Integration component to Express Entry.
Applicants will be able to receive additional points for Canadian work experience and experience in occupations Canada classifies as high wage.
But there is an important distinction:
Canada is not simply giving extra points to whoever personally earns the biggest salary.
The government is looking at the national median wage for the occupation itself. Pasted text
The list includes occupations such as:
physicians
nurses
engineers
software developers
cybersecurity specialists
teachers
electricians
pipefitters
pilots
construction managers
There is another major change.
An eligible job offer will no longer need a Labour Market Impact Assessment, or LMIA, to receive Express Entry points.
Instead, immigration officials say they will assess the legitimacy of the employer, the job offer and the applicant directly.
Existing profiles will also be recalculated automatically, and invitation rounds may temporarily pause during the transition. Pasted text
The bigger shift is clear:
Canada is putting more weight on people who are already successfully working here and on occupations with stronger wage signals.
Whether that lines up with the jobs Canada actually needs most is something worth watching.
Higher-paying jobs are not automatically the same as jobs facing the worst shortages.
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One Number Worth Watching Today
3.0%
That was Canada’s annual inflation rate in August.
Statistics Canada releases September CPI this morning, and it will be one of the last major pieces of information the Bank of Canada receives before its October 28 interest-rate decision.
The Bank has a difficult balance right now.
Higher oil prices can help Canada through exports, investment and government revenue.
But those same prices can also raise gasoline, shipping and household costs.
So Canada can get stronger economic growth and worse affordability at the same time.
Once the new CPI number is out, we will have a much better idea of which side is becoming more important.
Quick Things Worth Knowing
Canadian housing cooled again
National home sales fell 2.3% in September from August and were 7.7% lower than a year earlier.
The national MLS Home Price Index was down 3.4% year over year.
That is not the same thing as a housing crash.
Inventory remains around its long-run average and the national market is still broadly balanced. Pasted text
Waymo is coming to Toronto
Waymo says Toronto will be its first Canadian market, with a goal of offering fully autonomous rides in 2028.
But the vehicles you see before then will initially be mapping and testing Toronto roads with trained specialists behind the wheel.
There is also a regulatory issue.
Ontario’s current automated-vehicle pilot expires in October 2027, so the province will need a new, extended or permanent framework before Waymo’s planned commercial launch.
And then there is winter.
Waymo has operated in snow before, but there is no Toronto track record yet showing how the system performs commercially through a serious Canadian winter. Pasted text
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One thing before I go…
The Trump healthcare claim is actually a good example of why I started The Canadian Take.
The headline version is simple:
America loses money to Canada, and that money pays for our healthcare.
The actual system is less exciting.
Americans buy Canadian goods.
Canadians buy American goods.
One side can buy more than the other without either government handing the difference to the other country.
And Canadian governments then raise their own revenue and decide how to spend it.
Sometimes the most useful thing we can do is separate two numbers that sound connected but aren’t.
Until next time,
Dean
P.S. Alberta’s results will be one of the first things I check after polls close. I’ll break down what the vote actually changes once we have the numbers.