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By Dean Brown.
Good day,
With Thanksgiving coming up this weekend, millions of Canadians are about to buy something we probably don’t think much about.
A turkey.
But behind that turkey is one of the most controlled agricultural markets in Canada.
Farmers can’t simply raise as many birds as they want.
Imports are limited.
Prices are partly managed before the bird ever reaches a grocery store.
And Canada literally publishes a national turkey quota.
The surprising part is that Ottawa doesn’t actually decide how many birds each farmer gets to raise.
The real system is more complicated than that.
Thanksgiving is turkey’s Super Bowl
Canadians bought roughly 5.8 million whole turkeys in 2025.
About 2.1 million were purchased around Thanksgiving alone, representing roughly 37% of the entire year’s whole-turkey sales.
So more than 80% of whole turkeys are bought around just two holidays.
That creates an obvious problem.
A farmer can’t notice strong demand a week before Thanksgiving and suddenly grow another million mature birds.
Production has to be planned months ahead.
That is where supply management comes in.
So who actually controls production?
At the national level sits Turkey Farmers of Canada.
It is not a normal government department.
It is a producer-led national marketing agency created under federal law.
The organization looks at things like demand, inventories, imports, wholesale prices and competing meats, then works out how much turkey the Canadian market is likely to need.
That national allocation is divided among provinces.
Provincial turkey boards then divide their share among farmers.
The simplified system looks like this:
Market forecast → national quota → provincial quota → farmer → processor → grocery store
Ottawa creates the legal framework.
The Farm Products Council provides federal oversight.
But producers and provincial marketing boards actually run much of the system.
The quota is real
For the current control period, federal regulations authorize more than 402 million pounds of turkey production across Canada.
Ontario alone accounts for roughly 47% of that total.
But there’s an important catch.
That 402 million pounds is not simply how much turkey Canadians are expected to eat.
The federal quota also includes things like breeder production and production connected to exports.
Still, the basic rule matters.
A farmer cannot simply look at strong turkey prices and decide:
“I’m doubling production.”
If a producer goes beyond their authorized allotment, their future production rights can be reduced.
That restriction is one of the main ways Canada tries to prevent oversupply.
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Why would Canada do this?
The original problem was volatility.
Farmers would produce more when prices were good.
Eventually too much poultry would hit the market.
Prices would collapse.
Farmers would cut production.
Then supply would tighten again.
Supply management tries to smooth that cycle by matching production more closely with expected demand.
The trade-off is straightforward:
More stability. Less competition.
The government does not set the price at the grocery store
This part gets confused a lot.
Provincial boards can establish minimum prices earlier in the supply chain.
But the price you see at Walmart, Metro, Sobeys, Loblaws or another store is still set by the retailer.
Think of it like this:
Farmgate price → processor → distributor → grocery store → you
The beginning of the chain is managed.
The shelf price is not.
That becomes especially important around Thanksgiving because whole turkeys are often heavily discounted.
A grocery store may make very little on the turkey itself because it expects you to buy stuffing, potatoes, vegetables, dessert and everything else for dinner.
So one cheap Thanksgiving turkey doesn’t prove supply management has no effect on prices.
And one expensive turkey doesn’t tell us exactly how much of the price comes from supply management either.
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Canada imports turkey too
Canada does not ban foreign turkey.
In 2025, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reported that Canada produced about 139.3 million kilograms of turkey.
We also imported roughly 3.4 million kilograms.
And exported about 32.7 million kilograms.
So this is not a closed market.
The important question is how much foreign turkey is allowed in cheaply.
Canada negotiates import quotas under its trade agreements.
Inside those quotas, turkey can enter at relatively low tariff rates.
Once you move beyond them, the protection gets much stronger.
And that is where the real economic debate begins.
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🔒 Where the Story Gets Harder
Some turkey imported above Canada’s quota faces tariffs of roughly 154.5%.
Many turkey cuts face 165%.
That is what allows Canada to restrict domestic production without having unlimited foreign turkey simply replace it.
And it creates the obvious question:
Are Canadians paying more because of this system?
The broader economic evidence suggests:
Probably somewhat more, on average.
The OECD says Canada’s combination of production quotas, pricing and import controls generally pushes domestic prices above international levels.
Canada’s Competition Bureau has made a similar argument: if supply is deliberately restricted, prices should normally be higher than they would be in a more open market.
But we cannot responsibly say:
“Supply management adds $12 to your Thanksgiving turkey.”
The public evidence is not precise enough.
That is where today’s Plus edition goes next.
The Canadian Take Plus
Who benefits from quota?
Why does Canada use tariffs as high as 165%?
How much taxpayer money has actually gone to turkey farmers?
What happens if Canada opens the market?
And what exactly are Canadians getting in return?
I do the digging. You get the important part.
One thing before I go…
I think supply management gets argued backwards.
One side starts with:
Protect Canadian farmers.
The other starts with:
Get rid of the cartel.
But the useful question comes before either conclusion.
What exactly are Canadians buying with this system?
We give up some competition.
In return, we get a more stable domestic production system and more predictable farm income.
Whether that trade is worth it is the real debate.
Dean
P.S. If you’re buying a turkey this weekend, hit reply and tell me what you paid and which province you’re in. I’m curious how much Thanksgiving prices actually vary across Canada.