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By Dean Brown.
Good morning,
Good morning,
Winter is starting to give us a warning.
Snow has already shown up in parts of the country, and before long a lot more of us will be scraping windshields and pretending we remember where we left the snow brush.
But the political temperature is getting warmer.
The U.S. government is accusing Canadian politicians of potentially interfering in the American midterms.
Canada is pushing back.
And underneath that fight is a much bigger question:
What if the old Canada-U.S. relationship does not come back anytime soon?
Is Canada Really Interfering in the U.S. Election?
The U.S. Embassy in Ottawa has released nine examples it says show Canadian politicians trying to influence American politics ahead of the November 3 midterms.
The examples include Ontario’s anti-tariff advertising, Canadian officials lobbying American lawmakers and politicians publicly criticizing Donald Trump’s trade policies.
The terminology matters.
Most of the activity identified publicly so far has been open and attributed.
Everyone knows who is doing it.
That looks very different from covert or deceptive activity usually associated with foreign election interference.
So the more careful description is:
Washington is objecting to Canadian political advocacy during an American election campaign.
That is not the same thing as evidence Canada secretly manipulated the election.
Ottawa Is Still Backing Away
Canada clearly does not want the dispute to escalate.
Ottawa has instructed Canadian diplomats not to meet with U.S. midterm candidates during the final stretch of the campaign.
The Canadian argument is that lobbying Republicans and Democrats over tariffs is ordinary diplomacy.
The U.S. administration sees at least some of that activity as political influence.
There is a real grey area here.
Canadian officials obviously want American politicians to oppose policies that hurt Canada.
But once those politicians are also candidates, diplomacy can create political pressure.
The distinction I would make is between:
“Change this policy because it hurts Canada.”
and
“Vote for this candidate because it helps Canada.”
Based on the public examples so far, the evidence is much stronger for the first.
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Canada Is Starting to Spend Like the Tariffs Are Staying
This may be the more important economic story underneath all the political noise.
Canada-U.S. trade talks do not appear close to a settlement, and Canadian officials reportedly no longer expect a deal before the November 3 midterms.
At the same time, Ottawa and Ontario just announced an:
$8.7 billion industrial package
focused mainly on steel, autos and critical minerals.
This is not simply emergency money to keep workers afloat.
A significant part is meant to change what Canada can produce and where Canadian companies can sell it.
The biggest component is steel.
Ottawa is putting in $3.55 billion and Ontario another $1.67 billion, creating a:
$5.22 billion Steel Action Fund
Autos get another:
$2.5 billion
And Ottawa is putting up to:
$1 billion
toward roads supporting critical-mineral development in Northern Ontario’s Ring of Fire.
So I would not describe this as:
$8.7 billion in tariff bailouts.
It is closer to an industrial strategy.
The question Ottawa appears to be asking has changed from:
Can we get the Americans to remove these tariffs?
to:
What if they don’t?
Canada Is Adding Another Partner
Mark Carney was in Türkiye this week, where Canada and Türkiye launched a new Strategic Partnership.
It covers trade, defence, energy, mining, investment and security.
The two countries are also preparing to negotiate a free-trade agreement.
This will not replace the United States.
Canada-Türkiye merchandise trade was only about $4.3 billion in 2025.
The U.S. relationship is vastly larger.
But that is not really the point.
The Türkiye agreement fits a pattern we keep seeing:
Canada is trying to create more options.
Europe.
Vietnam.
Germany.
Türkiye.
Critical minerals.
European defence procurement.
None individually replaces the U.S.
Together, they reduce the risk of Canada having only one overwhelmingly important economic and strategic partner.
There is also an uncomfortable side.
Türkiye is a NATO ally with a substantial defence industry, but Canada and Türkiye have clashed over defence exports, and President Erdoğan’s government continues to face criticism over democratic and human-rights issues.
So this is better understood as a strategic partnership, not an endorsement of everything Türkiye’s government does.
Ottawa Gives Stelco 15 Days
This has escalated.
When Cleveland-Cliffs bought Stelco in 2024, the U.S. company made binding commitments involving Canadian employment.
The reported wording requires average annual union employment to remain at least 1,766 workers.
Ottawa says the layoffs breach that commitment.
Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has given Cleveland-Cliffs 15 days to reverse course or the federal government says it intends to begin legal action.
But the company has an argument.
Stelco says the commitment refers to an annual average employment level, not a promise that nobody can ever be temporarily laid off.
That distinction could matter if this reaches court.
So I would not declare either side the legal winner yet.
The bigger question is:
What is a foreign-investment promise to Canada actually worth once keeping it becomes expensive?
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Quick Things Worth Knowing
Rogers is adding a credit-card fee
Starting January 17, Rogers says customers who pay by credit card will face a 1.6% processing charge.
That includes credit-card Auto-Pay.
Direct debit, online banking, Visa Debit and Debit Mastercard are among the exempt payment methods. Quebec customers are also exempt.
On a $150 monthly bill, that works out to roughly:
$28.80 a year
before any applicable tax on the fee.
If your card earns less than 1.6% back on that payment, another payment method may make more financial sense.
Canada Post is adding weekend parcels
Canada Post is beginning weekend parcel delivery in Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal.
Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary are planned for 2027.
Regular letter delivery remains primarily Monday through Friday.
The reason is simple.
Amazon, UPS, FedEx, Purolator and gig-delivery networks changed what customers expect from e-commerce.
Canada Post is trying to catch up while its traditional letter business continues to shrink.
What I’m Watching
Canada and Europe meet next week
Canada hosts the EU for a summit in Montreal on October 29 and 30.
Europe is already Canada’s second-largest trading partner in goods and services, with about $178 billion in combined trade in 2025.
Canada has also become the first non-European country admitted into the EU’s SAFE defence-procurement framework.
After the Türkiye agreement this week, this summit is another test of the same strategy:
Can Canada turn “diversification” into actual business?
New contracts.
New customers.
New investment.
New defence opportunities.
That is what I’ll be watching.
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One thing before I go…
There is a thread running through almost everything happening right now.
The U.S. is accusing Canadian politicians of interfering in its election.
Trade talks are not moving quickly.
Canada and Ontario are putting billions into industries exposed to American tariffs.
Carney is signing partnerships elsewhere.
And Ottawa is threatening a U.S.-owned company over Canadian jobs.
Canada is not leaving the American relationship behind.
That would be economically unrealistic.
But Ottawa increasingly appears to be planning for a world where the old relationship may not simply snap back into place.
Instead of waiting, Canada is starting to build around it.
Until next time,
Dean
P.S. If you saw my video on the U.S. interference claim, I’m curious what you thought. Does lobbying American politicians over tariffs cross the line for you, or is that just normal diplomacy?