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By Dean Brown.
Good morning.
And somehow August is over.
I feel like we spent half the month talking about tariffs, pipelines and whether Canada has enough leverage against the United States.
So it’s fitting that we’re ending it with Trump celebrating what he calls the “biggest oil deal in world history” with Venezuela, then sharing a headline saying it puts Canada “on notice.”
At first I thought this was just another Trump jab at Canada. But there’s actually a bigger story underneath it.
And it connects to a few things we’ve already been talking about.
🛢️ Could Venezuelan oil actually threaten Canada?
The U.S. has announced a deal involving 17 Venezuelan oil fields containing roughly 65 billion barrels of reserves, with American interests taking majority control of the new venture.
Trump says it could eventually bring massive investment into Venezuela and provide cheap oil for the United States. AP has a good breakdown of what we know about the deal
Canada gets mentioned because Venezuela produces a lot of heavy crude, the same general type of oil many U.S. Gulf Coast refineries buy from Alberta. More Venezuelan production could eventually give those refineries another supplier and reduce some of Canada’s pricing power.
But Venezuela is not replacing Canadian oil anytime soon. Its oil industry needs years of investment in pipelines, power systems, equipment and technical expertise.
Canada already has enormous pipelines directly into the U.S., produces several million barrels a day and is a much more reliable supplier.
The more interesting question is what happens five or ten years from now.
On Friday, I showed you that Trans Mountain is already running at about 94% capacity. And we’ve already looked at the proposed new west coast pipeline designed to move even more Canadian oil toward Asia.
If the U.S. is actively creating another source of heavy oil, that makes Canada having other customers more valuable, not less.
📦 The tariff damage isn’t always showing where you think
That brings us back to the trade war.
Last week I broke down which U.S. tariffs are actually still in effect. But knowing the tariff rate is only half the story.
Canadian businesses are now showing us who actually pays it.
A Brampton company profiled in recent reporting is losing money on some American sales because it would rather absorb part of the tariff than suddenly charge customers dramatically more. At the same time, some of its U.S. inputs are being hit by Canadian counter tariffs. Read the business example here
That’s why a 50% tariff does not automatically mean a 50% price increase.
The exporter can cut its price. The importer can accept a smaller margin. The retailer can absorb some. The consumer can pay some.
Usually everybody gets hit a little.
The bigger danger is how long businesses can keep doing that. CFIB found 40% of surveyed Canadian exporters are affected by the latest 50% tariffs, and 35% of those firms expect revenue to fall by at least half. See the CFIB survey
So before tariffs show up as obvious inflation, they may first show up as lower profits, cancelled orders, reduced investment and eventually jobs.
And Canada’s own next round of counter tariffs begins September 8.
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Most sources have stopped looking. The alarm is easier to sell.
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🗳️ And Now Alberta’s independence debate gets real
All of this pressure from the United States is also becoming part of a very different Canadian argument.
Both Alberta separatists and federalists were campaigning this weekend as the province moves toward its October 19 referendum.
There’s an important distinction here because I keep seeing it described as an Alberta independence vote.
It isn’t.
The official ballot asks Albertans whether the province should remain in Canada or whether the government should begin the legal process toward holding a second, binding referendum on separation. You can read the exact question from Elections Alberta here
Danielle Smith says she plans to vote to remain in Canada, but argues the frustrations driving separatism are legitimate. Federalists argue this is the worst possible time to weaken Canada internally while we’re already in a serious confrontation with the U.S.
And that’s where the trade war creates an interesting argument for both sides.
Separatists can say:
Ottawa can’t protect Alberta’s interests.
Federalists can respond:
How much leverage would Alberta really have negotiating alone with the United States?
Especially when Alberta still needs pipelines, ports and infrastructure that cross the rest of Canada.
That’s the part of this campaign I’m going to be paying much more attention to than the slogans.
The free briefing keeps you caught up.
The Canadian Take Plus is where I spend more time on what the headline leaves out and what happens next.
Quick things happening across Canada and Beyond
🗺️ Google Maps now says “Lake America”
This story somehow keeps getting stranger. Google Maps now shows “Lake America” to users in the United States, while Canadians still see Lake Ontario. International users may see both names.
Some Canadian websites using embedded Google mapping data have even started displaying the American name, forcing Ontario to review affected pages. Reuters has the latest update
So Trump still hasn’t renamed the lake for Canada. He has, however, managed to change what millions of Americans see when they open Google Maps.
🗳️ About those Carney election rumours…
You may also have seen social media posts claiming Mark Carney is preparing to call another election within weeks.
I’m not running that as a story yet.
Right now I haven’t seen enough credible independent reporting showing that Carney has actually made that decision. Prediction is not reporting, and if stronger evidence emerges, we’ll come back to it.
Glean insights from across the podcast landscape.
Search by company, by theme, or by entity, and get alerted the moment something airs. Each result is cited back to the exact quote, speaker, and episode.
One thing before I go…
I keep coming back to the same lesson from this trade war.
Canada’s problem isn’t that the United States is our biggest customer. They’re beside us. We have enormous infrastructure connecting our economies. It makes sense that we trade heavily with them.
The vulnerability comes when we don’t have another option.
Venezuelan oil matters because the U.S. is trying to create another supplier.
Tariffs hurt Canadian businesses because many only have one major export market or rely on American inputs.
And even Alberta’s independence debate is partly being fuelled by the belief that Canada isn’t doing enough to protect its economic interests.
The answer probably isn’t cutting ourselves off from the United States.
It’s making sure that when Washington changes the rules, Canada has somewhere else to go.
More ports. More pipelines. More domestic production. More trade relationships.
That’s what leverage actually looks like.
P.S.
Trans Mountain is already nearly full and the U.S. is now trying to develop another major source of heavy oil.
Does that make you more supportive of another Canadian pipeline to the Pacific?
Hit reply and tell me what you think.
Dean