Good day,

We’re finally starting to get some actual numbers behind the Canada U.S. trade negotiations.

Nothing is final yet, but the emerging agreement could cut some major American tariffs while Canada makes concessions of its own.

We’re also looking at why Keystone XL is suddenly being discussed again, the next step for Churchill Falls, why borrowing costs remain stubbornly high and some surprisingly good news about Canada’s tech sector.

Here’s what’s happening.

The emerging trade agreement could cut U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 50% to 25%, with roughly 4 million tonnes allowed annually under the lower rate. Imports above that quota would still face 50%. Autos are also being negotiated, with Washington reportedly offering a reduction from 25% to around 15% while Canada wants something closer to 10%.

That would be meaningful relief, but we should be clear about what it means. A 25% tariff on Canadian steel is still historically very high. This would not restore the free trading relationship Canada had before this dispute.

Canada is also being asked to give something back. Carney has asked premiers to consider returning American alcohol to provincial liquor stores, while autos, dairy and market access remain part of the negotiations. Polling cited by Reuterssuggests 56% of Canadians oppose making additional concessions.

My view has not really changed. I think there is clearly enough of a framework now that both governments believe a deal is possible, but I still want to see the actual terms before calling this a win. Cutting a tariff from 50% to 25% sounds great until you remember that Canada was not paying 25% before this trade fight started.

Trump is talking about Keystone XL again, but the original cancelled pipeline is not simply being restarted.

South Bow and Bridger Pipeline are working on a project that would reuse portions of unused Keystone XL pipe already installed in Canada. Trump has already approved a cross-border permit, and Reuters estimates the project could eventually increase Canadian crude export capacity to the U.S. by more than 12%.

What makes this more interesting is that Carney has also raised Keystone-related infrastructure as something Canada and the U.S. could cooperate on. Canada now has Trans Mountain access to the Pacific, so another U.S. pipeline would give producers more options, but it could also pull us back toward greater dependence on the American market.

I think the bigger question is whether Canadian oil producers actually want enough additional capacity to justify another massive pipeline. Building it only makes sense if companies are willing to commit the barrels.

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The new Churchill Falls agreement has been announced, and Newfoundland’s legislature will now return for a special sitting on September 14 to debate it. The province estimates the package is worth about $49 billion in today’s dollars and gives Newfoundland more electricity and much better access through Quebec to U.S. markets.

Some people are now calling for a referendum before another long-term agreement is finalized. I understand the concern. Newfoundland lived with the consequences of the original Churchill Falls deal for decades, so people are understandably nervous about signing another agreement that will affect generations.

That said, this is what elected governments and legislatures are supposed to scrutinize. I’m more interested in whether MLAs are given enough time and information to properly examine the final terms than whether every major infrastructure agreement needs a referendum.

Long-term bond yields have been rising around the world. Canadian 10-year yields recently climbed to roughly 3.75%, while the U.S. 30-year Treasury moved above 5%.

This matters because the Bank of Canada does not directly control fixed mortgage rates. Variable mortgages follow the Bank of Canada much more closely, while fixed mortgages are heavily influenced by bond yields. That means the Bank of Canada could cut rates while your five-year fixed renewal remains expensive.

Government debt, inflation concerns and higher oil prices are all pushing investors to demand more interest for lending money long term. This is something I think Canadians need to understand better because hearing “rates are falling” does not automatically mean borrowing becomes cheap again.

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Canada quietly did extremely well in CBRE’s latest tech-talent rankings.

Toronto ranks third in North America, Vancouver ninth, Waterloo tenth, Montreal eleventh, Ottawa fourteenth and Calgary fifteenth. Calgary is the standout, with its tech workforce growing 56% between 2022 and 2025.

That is genuinely good news, especially for a country constantly talking about weak productivity. My concern is what happens after we develop the talent. Canada has always been good at producing educated workers. We need more of them building Canadian companies, intellectual property and headquarters instead of simply becoming cheaper talent for American firms.