Yesterday morning I wrote that Alberta's pipeline proposal had no confirmed route, no private builder, and no BC agreement.
By last night in Calgary, it had all three.
Mark Carney and Danielle Smith announced the West Coast Pipeline. The route is confirmed: Bruderheim northeast of Edmonton to the Roberts Bank deep water terminal in Delta BC, following the existing Trans Mountain corridor. One million barrels per day destined for Asian markets. Cost estimated between $35.2 billion and $43.7 billion including contingency.
The builders are named. Trans Mountain Corporation, the federally owned Crown corporation, will build and operate it. Pembina Pipeline comes in as the private sector partner with a 10 percent stake during construction and an option to increase to 20 percent once operational. The federal government and Alberta are equal majority partners. An Indigenous ownership stake is reserved, though its size is not yet confirmed.
BC is on board. Eby repeated that BC will not go to court to fight the pipeline. The North Coast tanker ban stays, which is why this route goes south to Delta instead of north to Prince Rupert. And Ottawa agreed to take on financial responsibility for any environmental damage or spills.
Smith said the profits will generate billions in revenues for provincial and federal governments and enrich Indigenous communities that choose to partner. Carney called it more than an accord, an approach that gives certainty to businesses to build.
Getting a route, a builder and a provincial agreement in 24 hours is genuinely significant. Credit where it is due.
Now here is the number nobody at the podium mentioned.
The Trans Mountain Expansion Project cost $4.5 billion when Ottawa bought it in 2018. By the time it started pumping oil in 2024, it had ballooned to over $35 billion. That is roughly 700 percent over budget. Trans Mountain Corporation, the same government-owned company, is building this one.
Carney called this an investment, not spending. Ottawa said exactly the same thing in 2018.
Two more things are unresolved. There are 125 Indigenous communities along the proposed route, and many were consulted under the assumption the route went north. Consultations on the actual southern route begin now. And the Pathways carbon capture project, which is linked to the oil sands companies needed to actually fill this pipeline, is still not finalized. A pipeline with no oil in it is just very expensive steel.
The next real test is October 1, when the federal Major Projects Office must designate this a project of national interest.
Canada needs customers other than the United States, and last night was real progress toward that. But every Canadian taxpayer is now a majority owner of a $40 billion project being built by a company whose last project went 700 percent over budget. The deal is real. The pipeline is not built. Watch October 1.
That is the Canadian take.
Until next time,
Dean
P.S. Ottawa says this pipeline is an investment that will pay for itself. After Trans Mountain went from $4.5 billion to $35 billion, do you believe them this time? Hit reply and tell me.